The first day of work after the Ching Ming holidays. Beijing International Exhibition Hall No. 2-5 were all LED illuminated. Today there are about 150 exhibitors participate in the 2011 Beijing LED lighting exhibition, many of whom are Philips, Osram, GE and other giants.
"Twenty years ago, I do auto show in Beijing, many foreign cars have come to the exhibition, such as Mercedes, Audi, etc. In the 1980s, the Chinese, who did not want to sell cars at once." As the host Fang, Stanley Chu, chairman of Aston exhibition Services Ltd. quite confident his eyesight.
"At that time the car manufacturers see is the future Chinese market, and now we are hosting the Beijing Lighting Fair intention is the same." He said.
In the eyes of Stanley Chu, today's LED and the same year the auto industry will have a "brilliant" in the market.
Zhi-yuan investment "LED Industry Development" (hereinafter referred to as "analysis"), said through industrial development, LED annual output will reach 100 billion level. According StrategiesUnlimited research institutes forecast, LED lighting in 2012 will reach $ 5 billion market capitalization. At the same time, the report predicts that 2012 will be expected to successfully defend the crown LED lighting LEDTV, this year will be a key year for the development of LED lighting.
LED industry is clearly a soaring cake. Faced with such a market, Chinese enterprises can share how much?
Investment is expected to continue to rise
"2010 substrate production scale can not be big, and then a big to explode." LED Engineering CEO Zhang Xiaofei, said that last year a total of 12 projects launched in the first quarter and did not slow down the speed.
"And there are more than 2900 sapphire substrate ten thousand. Epitaxy production 200 units last year, this year's plan is 250."
Xiaofei prophecy, single sum investment this year and last, it has to be more than the required global. "I think after three quarters of this year, production capacity will be more than the entire global demand." He said.
But for most Chinese enterprises is undoubtedly good news. Most Chinese LED enterprises to apply based. Saturated upstream energy production will surge downstream more right to speak.
"We must resolutely want to upstream price, the cost will go upstream to consume more." Xiaofei said. Because, downstream profits already high.
The surge in production capacity from the market to stimulate continued. LED Engineering Research Center statistics show that in 2009, "Ten City, ten thousand," the 21 pilot cities have installed about 222,000 lights, projected to 2011 will reach 1.12 million. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of lights around the country in 90 million. If every street lamp 5000 yuan terms, the overall market size of about 450 billion yuan.
2009 LED lighting in the global lighting market value of about $ 2.4 billion, only 3.3% penetration rate (percentage of market share that is occupied in the whole LED lighting market in a relatively traditional lighting). LED lighting is expected proportion of the global general lighting market will rise to 50% in 2015, reaching 80% in 2020.
It is based on the generally positive judgment on the market, the entire LED industry mergers and acquisitions and investment also appears to be fierce.
In February 2011, China Securities Journal reported that the industry association statistics show that in 2009 LED industry investment plans announced for 22 billion yuan. LED invest significant signs of warming. In 2010, the only listed company LED investment plan amounts to more than 30 billion yuan. Among them, only three optical planned investment reached 20 billion yuan. BDO Runda announced plans to invest 4.1 billion yuan LED.
Zhejiang Sunshine annual report claimed that in 2010, over the next three years, the total funds invested on the LED will be 10 billion. "I estimate that 1 billion could be finished in a year to vote now on the market a hundred million of investment are embarrassed to open." Xiaofei said.
"Analysis"), said 2010 has begun to ferment LED lighting compared with the 2009 market surge in demand do LED packaging, LED display enterprises have entered the field of LED lighting. At present, only the number of LED packaging companies on the Chinese market has been very little, most of the companies have started to do packaging development and production of LED lighting products.
Relative to the domestic market, commercial space lighting doubt on the acceptance of price make it easier for enterprises to enter the LED. Increasingly stringent energy conservation requirements, will make use of LED proportional increase in commercial space.
LEDinside estimates, 2010 to 2011 will be LED commercial lighting rapid growth and popularity of two years, and LED lighting applications in the home will have to wait until 2011 to take off, in 2012, and especially 2012 is a critical year.
Bashan (50618669) 15:50:15
When the industrial layout unfinished
Compared to incandescent lamps, LED energy-saving 95% can be achieved. Incandescent minimum luminous efficiency, and halogen lamps analogous thereto. Currently, countries around the world have launched a phase-out of incandescent roadmap.
The main raw materials, production processes into the LED epitaxial and chip, package, assembly and application of several links.
The current industrial structure basic to the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, the southeast region, the northern region as the leading. Each region basically formed a relatively complete industrial chain.
The high degree of industrialization of the South, Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is the first to develop and industrial areas with the highest density, focused on the country more than 80% of related companies, and are more complete industrial chain.
"The current size of more than 20 billion industry, the number of firms probably have more than 4,000." State Lighting R & D and Industry Alliance Deputy Secretary Nguyen said: "In addition to traditional Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta in accelerating the development of LED industry, everywhere in accelerate deployment, such as Min Delta and Xi'an, Chengdu and other Northwest cities. "
Upstream chip manufacturers for the whole industry chain of influence is quite substantial. And profits of the chip is the highest.
Our country is capable of producing the substrate and the epitaxial wafer manufacturers, including LatticePower, Tianfu Thermoelectric and three safety optoelectronics. However, the substrate and the epitaxial wafer on the domestic market is still largely dependent on foreign or Taiwan-funded enterprises.
Chip production mainly includes three optical, Silan, Union Optical and Dalian Road America and other enterprises. Meanwhile, the domestic chip manufacturers focused on low-power chips.
The packaging industry leader include Dalian road names, Kingsun, Furi Electronics.
In the whole industry chain, if the profits divided in proportion, packaging industry can get about 20 percent, while chip manufacturers can share 70% of profits, profits lowest is assembled. And this happens to be the current development of China's most prosperous part.
The current global chip market by a few giant monopolies: Nichia, Cree, and Philips. There are also a number of chip companies do, but almost all applications manufacturers have said that the current domestic technology also "do not worry", almost all chips are made of imported goods.
In mainland China, the number of upstream manufacturers occupy a very small proportion, about only about 3 percent. Long-term shortage of chips, packaging manufacturers order backlog situation persists.
Nguyen believes that compare with the world's major manufacturers of domestic construction companies to duplicate the problem. Although the chip localization rate increase very fast, but possession
Is still the low-end market.
Compared chip manufacturing, the middle of the package is part of the largest Chinese investment in recent years. Which involved key equipment MOCVD machine is business battleground. Global MOCVD machine almost monopolized by German AIXTRON and American VEECO two companies, Chinese companies invested crazy enthusiasm makes the two companies big profits. 2010 VEECO launched K465I in Chinese market, revenue increased 230 percent year.
"Under normal circumstances, local governments subsidize the cost of procurement of MOCVD machine about half (approximately 1.5 million)." Insiders told reporters. This is one of the MOCVD machine investment reasons to get together in recent years
On the yield point of view, China's LED packaging has accounted for 70% of the world, and in the field of low-end devices have a very high share.
"MOCVD subsidies will not stop," Zhang Xiaofei told reporters: "the local government said zone is unknown, but to complement the dark, and we must make."
Packaging industry rely on government subsidies started quickly, and then down the assembly areas seems to be more simple, because it is almost "labor-intensive" industries.
"I have not thought about before you go to Shenzhen to open his own assembly plant just want to do enterprise applications, but last year saw some of the packaging plant and lighting plant after changing his mind." Le light HENGXIANG (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd., general manager Wang Hong-liter told reporter.
When the reporter asked what the threshold needed during assembly, Wang Hong-liter smiled and asked the reporter: "In the Zhongguancun computer assembly how high the threshold needed?"
It is because of its technical threshold is low, assembly areas become the best at the Chinese market and the fastest growing part of digestion.
"Assembly is the most technical content, there are still about 40% of the profits, the market is still in the start-type worthwhile." Wang Hong rise to reporters to explain his business logic.
Intense competition in assembly areas without doubt. In fact, the country has more than two thousand companies are doing indoor commercial lighting applications. Xiaofei think this competition has been very intense.
In Nguyen opinion, and now LED industry is facing several major deficiencies that small scale, low industrial aggregation, local duplication, while the absence of public R & D platform, equipped technically to be a breakthrough.
Lack of industry standards
The current LED industry in the foreign policy of the patent system and intellectual property protection faltering, patent breakout will probably be one of the "second five" important direction. As China has a silicon substrate technology with independent intellectual property seems to be a new path to patent a breakthrough.
Nguyen said: "Eleventh Five-Year period, the silicon substrate technology has made great progress, and now also the silicon substrate abroad as an important research direction."
Meanwhile Nguyen said that the current intellectual property and patent applications are rapidly increasing, especially packaging and application links. "Eleventh Five-Year" is more than 1,000 patent applications, new patents, more than 400 patents, more than 40 international patents. Quantity and quality are improved.
Beijing Hua Shuming electro Institute believes: "LED is the future development of the principles of energy conservation and alternative worth having." For example, halogen high color rendering, while the LED in the color a little lost in terms of the performance of a chip This LED alternative for halogen lamps is relatively small.
Technology is of course to some extent can be seen as flawed, lack of LED industry standards were seen as another major industry shackles.
. "Many specifications is difficult to determine because there are a lot of LED power specification," Hua Shuming said: "The power of the traditional incandescent in certain circumstances flux is substantially constant but the LED has developed rapidly in recent years, while in 2009 70 lumens. / W can be, but this year did not reach 100 lm / W, simply do not want to get the project.
In the case of increasing light efficiency can not be made solely on the power requirements. He said users using a flux, not power. So now the standard optical parameters division, encourage enterprises to continuously improve the technology.
"So the future standards must be based on the flux of the standard." Hua Shuming said.
And Nguyen believes, "LED application should be said that there is a standard, GB, line marked and local standards for the industry played a role." But lighting design does not define what kind of light source must be used, so in terms of performance and safety has been lacking.
Special lighting market breakthrough
Obviously, you want to fight now available on the market of energy-saving lamps, and even T5, T8, and other products, LED easily hundreds of prices was not enough advantage.
"Now in the lamp, bulb on a fight to the death is very dangerous." Zhang Xiaofei, said. Disadvantage if price competition and technology, it seems that Chinese companies to hold more.
This expert suggested that concern the general lighting market, companies can enter the field from the special lighting, be sure to pay attention to market segments. At the 2011 Beijing Lighting Fair, the reporter also noted the special entertainment lighting and sports lighting. The China Hotel Purchasing Association is a collective visit, and exhibitors of products and lighting solutions showed great interest.
Many exhibitors, told reporters that the current customers are mainly concerned about the selection of products in the product. On the one hand the high price is a barrier, but more important is the customers' perception of LED products is not enough, the general said, "did not dare to use."
Market identity formation remains to be seen, but the industry has entered the enterprise, identify the pulse of the competition, in order to seize the initiative. Xiaofei recommends that companies ask themselves whether enough money, whether their own channels, and whether there own brand at the 2011 Beijing Lighting Fair forum.
Nguyen also said that local government's "Twelfth Five-Year" period may be clear focus on mergers and acquisitions downstream, because "China made the top ten chip companies, Taiwan has not yet add up to a major." This will also Chinese companies may be a good time to create their own brand.
Xiaofei also suggested that companies should not only zeroed in on an alternative, you can find the entry point from the technological innovation. Such as the new architectural lighting fields.
In the process of promoting the development of the industry chain, the subsidy is still likely to be one of the important means. Hua Shuming said the next step will be to promote the indoor direction modest subsidies as an alternative to downlights, spotlights. The "street lights and tunnel lights energy-saving effect is not obvious, the cost is not high enough."
